Long view: 80% drop in petroleum use by 2050 possible

Long view: 80% drop in petroleum use by 2050 possible

The National Research Council (NRC) has done something worthwhile that the auto industry and Americans in general, dont often do: taken the long view. The subject is whats possible in cutting petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The stated goal is an 80 percent cut. Is that just pie in the sky?

The conclusion of this arm of the National Academy of Sciences: Its possible, but very hard. To reach the goal, vehicles must become dramatically more efficient, regardless of how they are powered, says Douglas Chapin, principal of MPR Associates and chair of the committee that wrote the report. Alternative fuels to petroleum must be readily available, cost-effective and produced with low emissions of greenhouse gases.

Although the transition will be costly and take several decades, the committees calculations indicate that the benefits – energy cost savings, improved vehicle technologies, and reductions in petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions – will exceed the costs.

To meet the goal, improved vehicle technology would have to focus on reducing fuel use rather than adding greater power or weight, the report said.

The committee says an all of the above approach will be needed: improved efficiency of conventional vehicles and greater acceptance of hybrid electrics, plug-in hybrid electrics, battery electrics, hydrogen fuel cells, and compressed natural gas vehicles. But the high initial purchase cost is likely to be a significant barrier to widespread consumer acceptance, the report says.