As much as half of the U.S. new light-vehicle market will be electrified vehicles by 2030, says a new study by Boston Consulting Group (BCG). That includes battery-electric vehicles and hybrids. The report was issued the same day as the Republican tax plan in Congress that proposed eliminating the $7,500 purchase incentive for EVs, so some development of battery-powered vehicles could be slowed.
But the trends are clear, according to the report. Technology, regulatory mandates and consumer cost of ownership will shape the changeover. Globally, BCG predicts that 50 percent of new vehicles will be electrified by 2030. Internal combustion engines (ICE) will continue to play a major but changing role in the industry, as most electrified vehicles over time will be hybrids.
From about 2020 to 2025, electrified vehicles – a mix of full hybrids, mild (48 volt) hybrids, plug-in hybrids and battery-powered EVs (BEVs) – will increase their share of the market as OEMs are forced to meet tightening fleetwide efficiency and emissions standards, principally by incentivizing sales of alternative fuel vehicles.
After 2025, falling battery prices and rising consumer demand based on total cost of ownership will drive rapidly increasing sales of all EVs, especially BEVs. By 2030, 20 percent of new light vehicles sold in the U.S. are expected to be BEVs. It helps that battery costs are falling further and faster than projected just a few years ago. Compact cars will be almost entirely electrically powered, while ICE vehicles will remain the primary powertrain for pickups.
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