The automotive landscape will look very different by 2040, with more use of ride-sharing services such as Uber, and fewer cars owned by individuals. That’s the conclusion of a new report by IHS Markit, Reinventing the Wheel. The study looks at four key automotive markets: the United States, China, Europe and India.
“The pace and degree of this dynamic shift will have significant implications for industry, for public transportation systems and for how people get to work and live their lives – and spend their money on transport,” said Daniel Yergin, IHS Markit vice chairman.
By 2040, vehicle miles traveled will grow to an all-time high of about 11 billion miles per year in those markets and will keep growing. At the same time, sales growth of new light-duty vehicles will slow substantially.
The competition between the internal combustion engine and electric vehicles, the disruptive force of “mobility as a service” – such as ride-hailing – and the emergence of autonomous vehicles will lead to more profound changes in personal transportation than experienced in the past century, the study says.
Cars powered solely by gasoline or diesel will make up less than 50 percent of new car sales by 2031. But cars powered primarily by gasoline and diesel will still account for 62 percent of new cars in 2040. Autonomous vehicles will become a significant share of new vehicle sales after 2030.
To keep on top of these important trends, be sure and attend the Washington Auto Show’s MobilityTalks International Jan., 23-24, 2018. Click here for more information.Download Bulletin PDF