When we feel jittery, we vote the bums out

When we feel jittery, we vote the bums out

Jitters among the electorate bode well for challengers of incumbents on Election Day according to CNW Marketing Research. This happens when voters are nervous about economic conditions and vote against the incumbent in the presidential race. This bit of folk wisdom/common sense has now been quantified by a Pre-Election Jitters Index created by CNW.

The research firm creates a monthly Jitters Index based on how nervous people are about paying for their own federal taxes, gas prices and childs education, and about their job stability, ability to meet their day-to-day financial needs, the condition of their investments, food prices and local taxes. The higher the number (on a 10-point scale), the more jittery people feel.

CNW traced the index against presidential elections back to 1980 and found that if consumers showed serious concerns about their own economic condition, the election went against the incumbent or the incumbents party. For example, George H. W. Bush lost in 1992 when the Jitters Index was at 6.81.

More recently, the challenger party (Republican) won by a wide margin in the 2010 mid-term elections after the Jitters Index climbed to 7.7. It is now at 7.93, the same level that greeted Ronald Reagan in 1980. And well know after next Tuesday whether this holds true in 2012.