Shared autonomous EVs could cause major disruption to auto industry
By 2030, about a quarter of all miles driven in the U.S. could be in shared autonomous electric vehicles (SAEVs). The trend will mainly occur in large cities and will cause major disruption to the auto industry, according to the Boston Consulting Group (BCG).
In that time more than 5 million conventional vehicles per year could be replaced by a combination of fully autonomous electric vehicles for urban fleets and partially autonomous cars for personal use. Dealers will be less relevant as fleets make up a much bigger portion of sales, said a BCG statement.
The three trends ride sharing services such as Uber and Lyft, autonomous driving and electrification of vehicles have been studied separately, but this is the first study that has looked at how the trends will work together. Because of their ability to work together, SAEVs could shift about 25 percent of miles traveled from private vehicles, the report says.
The technology exists and our research shows that many consumers will embrace it, said Brian Collie, who heads BCGês automotive practice in North America.
The shift to SAEVs, which would be gradual and would begin in the early 2020s, would likely occur in cities of more than 1 million. Thatês where there is enough demand to keep fleet use high and there are enough difficulties associated with private vehicle ownership (high insurance rates, trouble finding parking and traffic congestion).
BCG says SAEVs would save time, money and lives. By using SAEVs, a typical Chicagoan who owns a car and drives 10,000 miles a year could cut the cost of travel from $1.20 per mile to 50 cents a mile. Over the course of a year, that could put more than $7,000 in that driverês pocket.Download Bulletin PDF