Partially self-driving cars will be on the road by 2017
Powered by strong consumer interest, partially autonomous vehicles will be here as soon as 2017, according to new research by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG). Fully self-driving cars will likely be on the road in a decade and a common site within two decades.
Cars with autopilot for highway driving and traffic jams will hit the road in large numbers by 2017, followed by urban autopilot by 2022 and fully autonomous driving by 2025. But mass adoption wonêt occur until the vehicles are safe from cyberattack, uncertainty about liability is resolved, social resistance is overcome and high-precision maps are developed.
Consumer interest and the production costs will make autonomous vehicles highly attractive to both carmakers and their customers, said Xavier Mosquet, North America leader of BCGês Automotive practice. But OEMs and technology suppliers will need time to build the right scale and reduce costs.
Consumers cited the following as the most important reasons for buying a self-driving car: lower insurance and fuel costs, increased safety, and the ability to multitask or be entertained while the vehicle drives.
The price of the technology, expected to come in at $2,000 to $4,000 per vehicle at launch, will drop in the first ten years or so.
Google is working hard to develop autonomous driving technology but has no plans to build the cars itself, Googleês autonomous vehicle director Chris Urmson said at the Automotive News World Congress last week.Download Bulletin PDF