NADA forecasts 2015 sales of 16.9 million
NADA forecasts that new light-vehicle sales and leases in the U.S. will reach 16.94 million next year before leveling off to the mid-16 million range in 2016 to 2018.
Rising unemployment and wages, continued low interest rates and lower gasoline prices all signal an increase in new light-vehicle sales in 2015, NADA Chief Economist Steve Szakaly said. Substantially reaching 17 million, however, will return the industry to its high water mark from 2000-2001.
For auto sales to move past 17 million, automakers would need to add more aggressive incentives and millennials would need to buy a lot more cars than they have in the past two years, Szakaly said.
NADAês forecast depends partly on continued low interest rates. Szakaly expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates next year, but only by a small amount. Auto sales should also be helped by anticipated low inflation and low oil and gasoline prices.
Szakaly is sticking with his 16.4 million forecast from earlier this year as he anticipates a healthy finish for sales. GDP will grow at 2.1 percent in 2014, with inflation remaining well-heeled as the year ends, he said.Download Bulletin PDF