Autonomous cars to be 15% of global sales by 2030
A new report sees more shared cars and less car ownership and more autonomous vehicles globally in the next 15 years.
Autonomous vehicles will make up 15 percent of global sales by 2030, predicts consultant McKinsey & Company in Automotive Revolution Perspective Towards 2030. Ford CEO Mark Fields has said he expects fully autonomous vehicles on the road by 2020.
Car sharing companies have seen more than 30 percent annual growth in membership in North America in the past five years. Especially in cities, the importance of car ownership is diminishing, thanks to car sharing companies, such as Zipcar, along with ride sharing companies, such as Uber and Lyft. The percentage of people age 16 to 24 who have driverês licenses has dropped from 76 percent in 2000 to 71 percent in 2013. Earlier this week, GM announced that it would invest $500 million in Lyft. The companies will work together on developing a network of autonomous cars.
The report predicts that by 2030, up to 10 percent of cars sold globally will be shared vehicles owned by a company, and by 2050, up to 30 percent will be shared.
Driven by government mandates, the share of electric vehicles globally will continue to grow, reaching 10 percent to 50 percent of new vehicle sales by 2030, the report says.
Vehicle sales overall will continue to grow, but at a slower rate, from 3.6 percent a year now to about 2 percent by 2030.Download Bulletin PDF