18 million sales by 2019, analyst predicts; other forecasts lower
North American light-vehicle sales will soar to 18 million by 2019, predicts IHS Automotives Mike Jackson, who directs the North American vehicle production forecasting there, according to WardsAuto. Jackson spoke at the Management Briefing Seminars sponsored by the Center for Automotive Research (CAR) in Traverse City, Mich. last week.
IHS forecasts 16.5 million sales this year and 17 million-plus in 2014. Auto sales should be 98 percent recovered by 2016, Jackson says. Some reasons for the increase in sales are improved consumer confidence, lower unemployment and the higher cost of owning older cars.
CAR, itself has a more cautious forecast. Looking only at U.S. sales, economist Sean McAlinden forecasts sales of 15.4 million this year, 15.7 million next year and 15.9 million in 2015 and 2016. Other economists say the employment picture is too shaky for a stronger forecast.Download Bulletin PDF